A new article says that children are less likely to catch and spread Covid-19. Their viral load might be the same, but because sinuses do not develop until later in life, the ACE2 receptors are far less numerous.
As Dr. Baxter says, total viral copies matters, and kids have a small tank while males over 60 have a huge viral reservoir.
Children 11 and younger who are less susceptible = 48 million people. Adults who have moderate to good immunity from catching the disease by the end of march is likely to be 30 million x 2-6 who were asymptomatic or untested, let’s call it 120M. Vaccinated people will be 75 million by the end of March. We need to get to 220 if R0=3 (and that’s probably really high) soooo 24 + 120 + 75 = 219.
Masking will likely stay with us at least until around the end of the year, but effective herd immunity is reachable by March according to Dr. Baxter.